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Technology

Sep. 16, 2025

Can AI forecast California Supreme Court rulings?

Early this summer, I ran an experiment in which I gave ChatGPT-4 and ChatGPT-5 only the oral argument transcripts from the court's last 25 cases and asked them to predict the outcome and the vote. Here were the results.

Kirk C. Jenkins

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Can AI forecast California Supreme Court rulings?
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For many years, oral argument at the California Supreme Court has been a controversial topic among appellate specialists. Does the Court attend oral argument with an open mind, making it possible for a case to be won (or lost) at that stage, or is the case already over by then?

The 1879 California Constitution requires that the Supreme Court's decisions be fil...

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