The race is on for LA County DA – and in greater numbers

The filing period for the 2024 California Primary Election closed on December 8, and the largest number of challengers in modern Los Angeles County history is now arrayed to square off against incumbent District Attorney George Gascón.

A total of 12 individuals – Gascón and 11 others – have qualified to appear on the March 5 Primary ballot. In the last 20 elections for District Attorney, there were four occasions where six people rounded out the field. But never more, until now. Though older records are sparse, it might well be that there have never been so many people taking on an incumbent for a Los Angeles County office.

This translates to (mostly) bad news for Gascón, whose well-publicized aversion to prosecuting cases aggressively has proven deeply unpopular with the public. The sizeable list of serious candidates here probably reflects both significant discontent with the incumbent’s performance and a collective assessment that he is highly vulnerable. The sheer amount of contenders all but ensures that Gascón will be held to less than 50% of the vote in the Primary, thereby forcing a run-off in the November 5 General Election.

Incumbents in County races who fall short of a majority in the first round of voting tend to be in grave political peril. Historically, these officeholders usually fare little better in the ensuing General Election than they did in the Primary. Witness the 2020 race for District Attorney, where incumbent Jackie Lacey received 49% of the vote against two challengers in the Primary. When she subsequently went one-on-one against Gascón in the General, she got only 46% of the vote.

Similarly, the 2022 race for Los Angeles County Sheriff featured a controversial incumbent who faced eight challengers. In the Primary, Sheriff Alex Villanueva garnered an underwhelming 31% of the vote to second place finisher Robert Luna’s 26%. In the General Election, Villanueva hardly improved on his performance, capturing just 39% of the vote to Luna’s 61%.

Incumbents have sought re-election in 18 of the last 20 races for Los Angeles District Attorney. In five of these elections, the incumbent fell below 50% of the vote in the Primary and proceeded to a run-off. Incumbents lost three of those contests, none of which was close. Indeed, all three of these losing candidates actually received a smaller percentage of votes in the General Election than they did in the Primary. The two incumbents who were victorious in the General both won by less than one percentage point. In essence, those who vote against an incumbent in a Primary Election tend not to change course in the General.

Another thing to consider is turn-out. As of this writing, Republicans have an active and at least moderately contested Presidential Primary. The Democrats really do not. If the past is any indicator, and if nothing changes, then this disparity could result in a Primary electorate that tilts slightly more Republican than would ordinarily be the case in Los Angeles County. Democrats will still dominate in terms of raw numbers, but less so. This phenomenon is likely to hurt Gascón, whose base of support is decidedly left-of-center.

All but one of Gascón’s opponents have prosecutorial experience. Three of them have been judges as well. They are otherwise a diverse lot in just about every way. They hail from different geographic areas of the County and represent a broad cross-section of ideology, ethnicity, and gender. Most of the public attaches importance to one or more of these factors, making Gascón’s task even more formidable as voters have a wide variety of alternatives from which to choose.

But it would be premature to write off Gascón entirely. He does have a core of committed partisans, and he is likely to be well-funded. Recall that he was vastly underestimated as a challenger in 2020, when initially he was not given much chance to unseat Lacey.

Moreover, with so many contenders Gascón is virtually guaranteed to win a plurality of the vote. That leaves the remaining 11 candidates to divide the rest. Unless one of them breaks strongly out of the pack, none is on target to break 20% of the vote. In fact, several of them will doubtless be separated by such tiny margins that we will not know the final order of finish until weeks after the election. This kind of splintering lends itself to the possibility that a somewhat weak challenger places second – one who has a small and loyal following, but who would be hard-pressed to expand their appeal to capture a majority of the electorate.

Nevertheless, on balance the crop of credible candidates unmistakably signals a tough race ahead for George Gascón. There is still some distance between now and next November. But it is probably safe to say that he will have a difficult path to re-election.